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"Bassman believes current pricing reflects a bimodal scenario, with an 85% chance rates remain stable and a 15% chance they drop to 1%. Combining these probabilities, the market arrives at the anticipated cuts by year-end."

That's an interesting point of view.

"The focus has shifted from worries about missed opportunities to safeguarding against potential downturns."

The current relative extreme positions on the eminisp500 by the main actors could also favor a market correction. The concrete trigger could start from an increase in spreads on corporate bonds (I'll have to explain why). IMVHO

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